Jeremy Corbyn's Prospective New Party
For what it's worth, while some would find the prospect of a Corbyn-led left party exciting this is unlikely to come to pass for several reasons. Chief among which is his close allies in the parliamentary party are unlikely to jump ship with him, and any of those who did, apart from John McDonnell and Diane Abbott, would very likely lose their seats. And getting union support would be difficult. The unions that kowtow to the PLP's supremacy in the labour movement - Unison, Community, USDAW, GMB - they're not going to. And those with a critically distant relationship - Unite, FBU, CWU - have their own priorities and, in the CWU's case, are running their own worker candidate programme committing the union more deeply to Labour (despite pulling some funds). But such obstacles aren't insurmountable, and stranger things have happened. Like the government being brought low by Christmas parties instead of 150,000 deaths and, of course, Corbyn becoming Labour leader in the first place.
Let's think through what a Corbyn-led left party might look like, its opportunities, and the difficulties it would encounter - apart from the horizon-hogging obstacle of the electoral system. Undoubtedly, it would not be short of members. The 150,000 or so reputed to have left Labour since Keir Starmer became leader are a natural constituency, including others still in the party. New and existing small left parties inspired by Corbyn's example would probably flock to his banner too. And while MPs are unlikely to accompany Corbyn into the new party, ex-MPs and sitting councillors are a different matter. Additionally, while affiliated trade unions are very likely to be non-starters, the same cannot be said for those who aren't. The recently resigned Bakers' Union, for example. And thanks to their long record of support TUSC, the RMT. As extra-Labour left wing projects go, because of Corbyn as a figurehead of a popular left-wing, anti-austerity and anti-war sensibility this party would be head and shoulders above any leftwing split or united left vehicle that has existed in recent decades.
How about its support? When the Independent Group/Change UK launched in a blizzard of friendly publicity, YouGov straight away prompted them on their voter intention surveys. Implausibly, 14% said they would back them at an election. Because of Corbyn's profile, his party would get plenty of hostile attention, but in politics there's no such thing as bad publicity. Initial polling figures of around eight per cent would be a good estimate, assuming it was prompted for, and it might eclipse the Greens (while drawing on some of its support, too). Electorally speaking, it would handily retain Islington North for Corbyn, but elsewhere it wouldn't do terribly well. Probably better than the usual run of far left election results, and maybe some deposit saves and relatively respectable results in places (just as Respect managed in 2005), but the danger it poses Labour is the same as the Greens. I.e. pulling just enough votes away from Labour in tight marginal contests and letting the Tory slip through. Obviously, a new party could use local elections, by-elections, and parliamentary by-elections to build its profile. The more consistent it is doing this, the more it may menace Labour.
The problems? There are two big issues a new Corbyn party would face that might soak up energy that would be better directed outwards. The first are entry jobs from the Trotskyist left, who will refuse to disband their organisations or subordinate their ever-so-wise little Lenins to the greater good of the new party as a whole. By far the largest would be the Socialist Party, who recently split because their (now retired) general secretary would not stand for a smidgen of accountability to the wider international organisation. Among other things. And then there are the smaller groups who delight in taking over branches and other positions of authority. Comrades with long memories might recall one of the reasons why Momentum moved quickly to a centralised structure under Jon Lansman's leadership was precisely because of this sort of toy town behaviour. Having followed every left unity/left fusion project since 1996's Socialist Labour Party, what has been built by the "united" far left has consistently proven somewhat less than the sum of its parts.
The second, probably more problematic, hangers on are what you might call, for want of a better phrase, the narcissistic left. These are a ragbag of provocateurs, self-publicists, and big mouth know-it-alls who deliberately try courting controversy and would damage a putative Corbyn project by their association. George Galloway, Chris Williamson, Ken Livingstone, and Alex Salmond cheerleader Tommy Sheridan are prominent exponents of this wrecking tendency, but there are plenty of others. Including those who acted as the Labour right's useful tools during their cynical attacks on Corbyn and Corbyn's Labour as antisemitic. If the press don't latch on to their "colourful characters", their presence at party meetings and public events would damage the party and put people off. Unfortunately for a Corbyn party, there's no easy way of dealing with disruptive elements. Membership vetting, bans, or a heavy-handed constitution are guarantees for further rounds of infighting and paralysis.
The last issue is what the party is for. Apart from getting Corbyn re-elected, what else? A movement/party that builds its strength and influence outside of Westminster, like the official Communist Party did in its glory days? Concentrate on elections and become a sort of UKIP-from-the-left that is able to leverage its support to influence mainstream politics? Yes, but that needs a carefully calibrated strategy and seriousness of purpose. And lastly, what about its attitude to Labour and the unavoidable issue of a Labour government versus a Tory government. Would it pull its punches - which Corbyn would likely favour owing to him, when all is said and done, being a Labour man? Avoid certain seats where there are existing left wingers? Or go all out? The question of Labour cannot be avoided, and it's one likely to produce recrimination between members who see it purely as a matter of strategy and others who cannot forget the disgraceful behaviour of the Labour right.
A good job none of this has come to pass and it's all castles in the sky stuff. But if it does, if the Telegraph are more on the nose than they usually are when reporting left politics stuff, these are the issues a prospective Corbyn party would have to face. It might not be pretty, matters might become more fraught. But certainly, politics would be more interesting.
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